STAR WARS VII BOX OFFICE NEAR 2 BILLION

An image of the film

(Photo: Forbes)

The new film of Star Wars continues to impress the Box Office worldwide  which is near 2 billion:

“Once again, no real Star Wars: The Force Awakens news to report. The Walt Disney blockbuster earned $799,000 yesterday to bring its total to $898.3 million domestic after 48 days of release. As such it will probably top $899m today and probably top $900m on Friday or very early Saturday. And yeah, it should top the magic $2 billion mark worldwide sometime over the weekend, becoming the third film ever to do so as well as the second film ever to do so sans a rerelease. Yes, inflation and marketplace expansion plays a role, but the dollar is a lot stronger than it was in 2012 thus deflating overseas box office figures. 2012-level foreign box office wouldn’t have been enough to topple Avatar, but it would have made it a tighter race. By I digress, the big Star Wars news is over the weekend. Let’s move on to Kung Fu Panda 3.

The DreamWorks Animation feature has earned $1.4 million on Wednesday for a six-day total of $46.7m in America. Now that means it will take a week to make the $47.5m that Kung Fu Panda 2 earned over the Fri-Sun frame of its $66.75m Thurs-Mon Memorial Day opening weekend back in 2011. And assuming it earns around $25m on its second weekend, it will have earned just a little more ($73m) than that six-day total over its first ten days of release. As I’ve said before, DWA releases tend to be leggy and had we not been looking at Super Bowl Sunday I’m inclined to presume that we would have had a smaller second weekend drop. But again, if the film has the kid-friendly field relatively to itself for February, so a $140m+ domestic total is still possible. .

DreamWorks knew it was taking a risk releasing the film in the end of January, and it still has a shot at becoming one of the bigger “new” January releases (not an Oscar platformer) of all time by the time it’s done. The other big action for the film is of course in China. If I may, the film may be falling victim to a classic case of overwhelming expectations. The film opened last weekend with a $57.9m debut weekend and has thus far, at the end of its first week, earned $87.8m in those first seven days. Coupled with around $15m in other territories (as well as not-yet-reported numbers outside China) and the $47.6m US total, Kung Fu Panda 3 has topped $150m worldwide in its first week.

Assuming the Chinese New Year gives it anything resembling a bump in its second weekend, it should have a decent second weekend right before it loses a bunch of theaters to new movies dropping right on New Year’s Day (Monday). I am not going to predict its second weekend, but if I did I would put the measuring stick at between $30 million and $47m. For example, the plunging-to-Earth The Force Awakens earned 4.5x its Thursday number over its second weekend, while many US releases tend to earn around 7x their Thursday figure as a weekend total (very rough math).

So Kung Fu Panda 3 is topping the $92 million China total of Kung Fu Panda 2 presumably tomorrow while it should cross the $100m mark on Saturday at the latest. Whether or not it ends its tenth day with $115m+ or $125m+ is a matter of legs. Even if it collapses in China after it loses its screens, we’re still talking about a $140m film that should end up with around $140m in America and around $140m in China.

Yet, fairly or not, there was a presumption that the animated sequel, which was a Chinese co-production and was heavily-tailored for Chinese audiences, was going to crush all records and fly above $250m in the marketplace. Maybe that was the hope, but I’m always leery of betting on breaking records. And let’s not forget that the film opens in the vast majority of its overseas markets in mid-to-late March, so its box office story is not yet written.”

 (Forbes, 2016)

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